Oilers "Risked" Cap Space; How much Cap Hit can they safely still add?
| POS | Player | Base Cap Hit | Bonus | Max Cap Hit | Bonus Proj | Proj Cap Hit | |||
| F1 | Eberle | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | |||||
| F2 | Lucic | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | |||||
| F3 | Nuge | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | |||||
| F4 | Pouliot | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | |||||
| F5 | Yakupov | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | |||||
| F6 | Hendricks | 1.850 | 1.850 | 1.850 | |||||
| F7 | Letestu | 1.800 | 1.800 | 1.800 | |||||
| F8 | Maroon | 1.500 | 1.500 | 1.500 | |||||
| F9 | Kassian | 1.500 | 1.500 | 1.500 | |||||
| F10 | Lander | 0.988 | 0.988 | 0.988 | |||||
| F11 | Draisaitl | 0.925 | 2.475 | 3.400 | 0.850 | 1.775 | |||
| F12 | McDavid | 0.925 | 2.850 | 3.775 | 2.850 | 3.775 | |||
| F13 | Pakarinen | 0.725 | 0.725 | 0.725 | |||||
| F14 | Puljujarvi | 0.925 | 2.475 | 3.400 | 0.425 | 1.350 | |||
| - | |||||||||
| D1 | Sekera | 5.500 | 5.500 | 5.500 | |||||
| D2 | Klefbom | 4.167 | 4.167 | 4.167 | |||||
| D3 | Larsson | 4.167 | 4.167 | 4.167 | |||||
| D4 | Fayne | 3.625 | 3.625 | 3.625 | |||||
| D5 | Davidson | 1.425 | 1.425 | 1.425 | |||||
| D6 | Nurse | 0.863 | 0.850 | 1.713 | 0.638 | 1.501 | |||
| D7 | Oesterle | 0.585 | 0.585 | 0.585 | |||||
| IR | Ference | 3.250 | 3.250 | 3.250 | |||||
| - | |||||||||
| G1 | Talbot | 4.167 | 4.167 | 4.167 | |||||
| G2 | Gustavsson | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | |||||
| - | |||||||||
| Buyout | Korpikoski | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | |||||
| Totals: | 64.687 | 73.337 | Totals: | 69.450 | |||||
| Cap Ceiling: | 73.000 | 73.000 | Cap Ceiling: | 73.000 | |||||
| Cap Space: | 8.313 | (0.337) | Cap Space: | 3.551 | <---- | Cap Hit Oilers could add in Trade before any roster moves | |||
| Bonus Total: | 8.650 | Bonus Total: | 8.650 | ||||||
| Max Allowed: | 5.475 | Projected Bonuses: | 4.763 | ||||||
| Firm Hit Needed: | 3.175 | Bonuses for Cushion: | 3.888 |
- This 4.763M of Projected Bonuses earned should be treated as Firm Cap Hit and therefore Cap space reserved for it. This will satisfy the 3.175M requirement of space needed above the 5.475M Bonus Cushion. The remaining achievable bonuses of 3.888M are not likely to be reached and can be "risked" into the bonus cushion
Assumptions & Draisaitl/Puljujarvi Bonuses
- Ference LTIR provides no relief given the magnitude of bonuses
- Mcdavid will hit all his bonuses; 2.85M
- Puljujarvi will have same contract and bonuses as Draisaitl (seen below)
- Max $850,000 Schedule A bonuses, Max $1,625,000 in Schedule B bonuses in all years
- Schedule A
- $212,500 for any of the following achievements - top 6 forward on team in ice time (total or average per game, min 42GP), 20 goals, 35 assists, 60 points, 0.73 points per game (min 42GP), top 3 forward on team in +/- (min 42GP), All Rookie team, All Star game, All Star game MVP.
- Schedule B
- $1,625,000 for any of the following achievements - top 10 forward in the league in goals/assists/points/points per game (min 42GP), top 5 in league in Hart/Selke/Richard voting, NHL First or Second team all star, Conn Smythe.
- Projected Draisaitl Bonuses Achieved: Max Schedule A (Ice time, +-, Assists, goals or PPG (0.85M)); No Schedule B
- Projected Puljujarvi Bonuses Achieved: 1-2 Schedule A (Ice Time, +- (0.425M)); No Schedule B
Nurse Bonuses
- Max $850,000 Schedule A bonuses
- Schedule A
- $212,500 for any of the following achievements - top 4 defenseman on team in ice time (total or average per game, min 42GP), 10 goals, 25 assists, 40 points, 0.49 points per game (min 42GP), top 3 defenseman on team in +/- (min 42GP), top 2 defenseman on team in blocked shots (min 42GP), All Rookie team, All Star game, All Star game MVP.
- Projected Nurse Bonuses Achieved: 3 Schedule A (Ice Time, +-, Blocked shots (0.6375M))
Conclusions
- If the Oilers ice the roster above they can add 3.55M of cap hit still for the 2016-17 season while utilizing 3.888M of bonus cushion space in bonuses that are likely unreachable
- A trade moving out no bodies at all for say Barrie will still require the demotion of one defenseman; if it's Oesterle that opens up another .585M so we are at ~4.14M. If they are bold and it's Nurse it's 1.5M and now we can add nearly 5M.
- Digging deeper an add like Barrie would make it less likely Nurse hits all of .638M and even with the more likely situation of Oesterle down and Fayne/Nurse rotating in and out of lineup you're 4.14M goes up to closer to 4.75M.
- If the Oilers really want to be aggressive and ice a strong roster this year 4-5M in cap space is a valuble trade chip/asset in pursuing UFAs/RFAs.
- It does come with substantial risks. If Draisaitl or Puljujarvi blow the doors off and hit those Schedule A/B bonuses the Oilers would be staring at a cap penalty for 2017-18 of as little as .213M to 3.888M.
- That said if they are doing that well the team is likely doing very well and linemates that likely have lesser value now (say Yakupov, Pouliot, Maroon, Kassian and maybe Nuge and Eberle) would have increased value in season and could be dealt to address the coming overage.
- Minor tweaks like Beck for Lander can also help save like 0.25M while day to day up and down paper transactions to manage daily cap hit are also feasible (Oilers have many waiver eligible players to facilitate this) to help keep the cap at a minimum
- I'd say there is a bit of upside as well if they get aggressive in keeping Puljujarvi and maybe even Nurse in the AHL. This could open up as much as another 1M in cap space getting them to a max add of 6M if Nurse is sent down.
With Thanks/Sources
- Much of the base of this work comes from Mike Colligan's great article on the Oilers cap situation found here: http://www.colliganhockey.com/edmonton-oilers-salary-cap-analysis-2016/
- Oiler Bonus Schedules found at http://www.generalfanager.com
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